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The Base Case cost estimate begins in 1995 and ends in approximately 2070, when
environmental management activities are projected to be substantially
completed. The estimate does not include costs expended since the program's
formal inception in October 1989 -- about $23 billion -- or costs incurred
before 1989. Nor does it include costs beyond 2070 for long-term surveillance
and maintenance, which are estimated at about $50-75 million per year. These
costs are assumed to continue indefinitely after a disposal site or restricted
access area is closed.
Under the Base Case, the life-cycle cost estimate for the Department of Energy's
Environmental Management program ranges from $200 to $350 billion in constant
1995 dollars, with a mid-range estimate of $230 billion. Figure
1
graphically depicts the life-cycle cost profiles. This includes not only the
$172 billion for dealing with the nuclear weapons complex legacy, but $24
billion for future wastes from nuclear weapons activities, and $34 billion for
past and future wastes from other activities. The projected costs for
treatment, storage, and disposal of waste generated by ongoing defense and
research activities is $19 billion. The significant projected cost for support
for future ongoing programs indicates the value of vigorous pollution
prevention efforts to reduce these costs and threats.
The range of the cost estimate varies depending on the assumed level of
productivity over the life of the program as described below.
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The mid-range total program estimate of $230 billion reflects a planned
20-percent increase in productivity and efficiency over the next 5 years, plus
an annual 1-percent productivity improvement over the remaining life of the
program.
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The low-end estimate of $200 billion reflects a more aggressive efficiency and
productivity improvement program -- 20-percent for the next 5 years as in the
mid-range total estimate, and subsequent annual improvements of nearly 2
percent (a number commonly used by the private sector in today's business
climate).
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The high-end estimate of $350 billion reflects costs if current levels of
inefficiency and productivity were sustained over the program's life.
These levels of efficiency improvement are not only needed and planned, they
are attainable. The Environmental Management program already has achieved
significant improvements in efficiency and productivity. From FY 1994 to FY
1996, the program will have saved more than $2.1 billion through greater
productivity.
Although the total life-cycle estimate is derived from a 75-year program
duration, more than 90 percent of the life-cycle cost estimate reflects
activities projected to occur during the next 40 years. The remaining costs are
primarily for the operation of large waste treatment facilities at a limited
number of sites. In 2070, given the Base Case assumptions, access will be
restricted at the large, isolated Department of Energy sites with existing
burial grounds. These sites include certain sections of the Hanford Site, Idaho
National Engineering Laboratory, Savannah River Site, Nevada Test Site, Oak
Ridge, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. At
smaller Department of Energy sites, such as the Mound Site in Ohio or the
Pinellas Plant in Florida, where contamination has been contained in place,
future use is expected to be limited to industrial purposes.
Small non-Department sites or sites near heavily populated areas or water
sources are assumed to be released for residential or industrial use. Examples
include the General Atomics Site at La Jolla, California, and Battelle Columbus
Laboratories in Columbus, Ohio.
Figure 2 shows cost estimates for the Environmental
Management program under the mid-range Base Case estimate. The cost estimate is
divided among the five major elements of the program: waste management,
environmental restoration, nuclear material and facility stabilization, program
management, and technology development.
About This Document
Posted 5/16/1995 (mw)
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