1.0 Introduction

During World War II and the Cold War, the United States developed a massive industrial complex to research, produce, and test nuclear weapons. This nuclear weapons complex included uranium mining, nuclear reactors, chemical processing buildings, metal machining plants, laboratories, and maintenance facilities that manufactured tens of thousands of nuclear warheads, and conducted more than one thousand nuclear explosion tests.

Weapons production stopped in the late 1980s, initially to correct widespread environmental and safety problems, and was later ended indefinitely because of the end of Cold War. The work remaining, and the subject of this analysis, is the legacy of thousands of contaminated areas and buildings, and large volumes of "backlog" waste and special nuclear materials requiring treatment, stabilization, and disposal. (See Appendix B for a further discussion of the causes of the environmental legacy being addressed by the Environmental Management program.) Approximately one-half million cubic meters of radioactive high-level, mixed, and low-level waste must be stabilized, safeguarded, and dispositioned, including a quantity of plutonium sufficient to fabricate thousands of nuclear weapons. Therefore, the security as well as the safety of this material is of paramount importance. Moreover, because plutonium can spontaneously ignite in certain circumstances when in contact with moist air, careful attention must be paid to handling and storage safety.

In 1989, the Department of Energy established the Environmental Restoration and Waste Management program, now called the Environmental Management program, to consolidate ongoing activities and accelerate efforts to address the inactive production facilities and sites and the accumulated waste, contamination, and materials. Six years later, this program is responsible for the maintenance and stabilization as well as the environmental restoration and waste management work at virtually the entire nuclear weapons complex not being used for continued weapons activities. The Environmental Management program is the largest environmental stewardship program in the world, with 150 sites in approximately 30 states and Puerto Rico.

1.1 THE 1996 BASELINE ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT REPORT

The primary mission of the Department of Energy's Environmental Management program is to reduce health and safety risks from radioactive waste and environmental contamination resulting from developing, producing, and testing nuclear material for weapons. The 1996 Baseline Environmental Management Report provides a total life-cycle cost estimate and anticipated schedule of the projects and activities necessary to carry out the Environmental Management program's missions for environmental remediation, waste management, basic science, technology development, the transition of operational facilities to safe shutdown status, and the safeguarding and security of special nuclear materials.

For more comprehensive information about the Environmental Management program and a description of program accomplishments and other related initiatives, see the following published reports:      Charting the Course:The Future Use Report (April 1996) provides results of the Department­wide Future Use Project and discusses the future­use planning efforts under way at 20 Department research and former nuclear weapons production sites. Sixteen of the 20 participating sites, in collaboration with Tribal and local governments and stakeholders, developed recommendations regarding the future use of site land and facilities. Environmental Management 1996 (April 1996) is the Office of Environmental Management's annual report on the program's progress. It assesses the program's performance in 1995 compared with 1994. Taking Stock: A Look at the Opportunities and Challenges Posed by Inventories from the Cold War Era (January 1996) reports on a Department­wide effort to improve management and disposition and to reduce costs for materials that no longer have clearly defined or immediate uses. Closing the Circle on the Splitting of the Atom (January 1996, second printing) describes existing environmental, safety, and health problems throughout the nuclear weapons complex, and what the Department of Energy is doing to remedy the problems. Risks and the Risk Debate: Searching for Common Ground, "The First Step" (June 1995) details the findings of the Department's first effort to develop a consistent approach to evaluating risks throughout the nuclear weapons complex. This draft risk report provides a qualitative risk evaluation of 1,199 environmental management activities planned for FY 1996. This report will be finalized in Summer 1996. To obtain copies of these reports, or for more information on the Environmental Management program, please contact the Center for Environmental Management Information at 1­800­7­EM­DATA.

The Department of Energy prepared this report as an analytical tool to help guide Departmental decisions and to provide an accounting of the Department's progress, spending, and plans. In addition, federal law requires the Secretary of Energy to regularly submit a Baseline Environmental Management Report. The 1996 Baseline Environmental Management Report (Baseline Report) is the second of these reports. In addition, the report serves as a benchmark - or starting point - in the development of new "Ten-Year Plans" that are being prepared to define new, near-term cleanup objectives and greatly accelerate the pace and reduce the costs of cleanup over current plans.

The first report, prepared in 1995, estimated that the total cost of the Environmental Management program's mission will be between $200 and $350 billion over a 75-year period. Significant decisions made over the past 12 months have changed the projected scope of the Environmental Management program presented in the 1995 report. For example, new technical approaches at the Hanford Site in Washington, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, and the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site in Colorado have affected the cost and schedule estimates for these sites. The 1996 Baseline Report highlights these changes, both at the site level and at the national level. Guided by a new ten-year planning process, we are confident that we can further reduce the costs and accelerate the pace of cleanup through better coordination between sites, use of "breakthrough management" and use of new technologies.

THE 1996 BASELINE REPORT IS: A life-cycle cost estimate for the entire Environmental Management Program A policy analysis tool that explores the potential consequences of several policy alternatives A description of environmental management activities expected to be necessary to address the Department's legacy and projected future activities THE 1996 BASELINE REPORT IS NOT: A definitive basis for planning specific projects A budget document A funding request A description of long-term priorities

Because the program is only seven years into a life cycle that spans over 75 years, many decisions will be made that can dramatically change the direction of the program. In addition to illustrating the assumed path forward, the 1996 Baseline Report presents policy analyses that examine the consequences of modifying key program assumptions. The analyses presented include answers to the following questions:

• Land Use - What effect will future land-use decisions have on the overall scope, cost, and schedule of cleanup for Environmental Management sites?
• Program and Project Scheduling - What are the cost consequences of delaying or accelerating programs and projects? What is the relationship between program pace, schedule, and waste volumes?
• A "Minimal Action" Scenario - What is the minimum funding necessary to prevent risks to human health or the environment from increasing for 75 years in the absence of the constraints of current legal requirements?

The 1996 Baseline Report is based on current (as of late 1995) national and site-level assumptions regarding the actions or activities that are most likely to occur in the future. It is expected that these projected activities will change in the future. In fact, one of the principal purposes of this report is to inform a national debate on what the best future course should be.

BASELINE REPORT BACKGROUND

The Department prepared the 1995 Baseline Report in response to a Congressional mandate made in the 1994 National Defense Authorization Act (Appendix A.1). Congress directed the Department to: estimate the total cost of the Environmental Management program, describe each project or activity at each site, describe the environmental problem addressed by each project or activity, specify the proposed remedy or solution to the problem, if known, estimate the cost for completing each project or activity (in five-year increments where appropriate), and estimate the schedule for completing each project or activity (with five-year milestones). Congress included additional requirements in the 1995 National Defense Authorization Act (Appendix A.2), which directed the Department to: describe personnel and facilities required to complete each project or activity, increase stakeholder involvement, expand the pollution prevention discussion, and describe the research and development necessary to develop the technologies for environmental restoration and waste management projects or activities

1.2 OVERVIEW OF THE 1996 BASELINE REPORT

The 1996 Baseline Report consists of an executive summary and three volumes: Volume I, the 1996 Baseline Environmental Management Report, and Volumes II and III, Site Summaries for the 1996 Baseline Environment Management Report.

Volume I contains eight chapters:

Chapter 1 introduces and provides an overview of the 1996 Baseline Report.

Chapter 2 describes how the Environmental Management program is organized to provide remedies to the environmental legacy of the nuclear weapons complex. Six functional areas are described: environmental restoration, waste management, nuclear material and facility stabilization, science and technology development, landlord, and national program planning and management.

Chapter 3 defines the "Base Case," which is a long-range projection of costs, schedules and activities that describe the Environmental Management program from its current state to completion. This chapter describes the challenges involved in developing a life-cycle cost estimate for the Environmental Management program and outlines the general methodology and key assumptions used to develop the Base Case. The key Base Case assumptions are divided into four main categories: funding, scheduling/site completion, land use, and functional area.

Chapter 4 summarizes the Base Case results. These results represent a new baseline for the Environmental Management program and depict the most likely scenario for the program based on current assumptions. This chapter also includes summary results of two Base Case analyses: science and technology development and pollution prevention.

Chapter 5 compares the 1995 and 1996 Base Case results and describes how the Base Case changed since last year.

Chapter 6 examines alternative scenarios that are built on the Base Case. These alternative scenarios examine the impacts to cost and schedule estimates that result from varying program assumptions. Included are three scenarios: land use, program and project scheduling, and minimal action.

Chapter 7 compares the results of the Base Case and the alternative scenarios in three areas: life-cycle cost estimates, program end states, and overall benefits and losses. This chapter provides side-by-side comparisons of the results that are presented separately in Chapters 4 and 6.

Chapter 8 discusses the various conclusions of this year's report and how baseline planning exercises will continue in the Environmental Management program.