The 1996 Baseline Environmental Management Report at a Glance

The BASE CASE is an estimation of the life-cycle costs and schedules for projects and activities needed to complete the Environmental Management program's mission. The most recent total cost estimate is $227 BILLION.

Cost Estimate Assumes:

• Compliance with existing requirements and regulations (as of October 1995).
• Use of available technologies.
• Current land use decisions and plans.

Technical and productivity assumptions were developed by field officials.

WHAT WE LEARNED:
Differences from 1995 Estimate

Although the total 1996 Base Case estimate ($227 billion) appears similar to the 1995 Base Case estimate ($237 billion, in constant 1996 dollars), it actually reflects a significantly lower cost estimate by field offices.

The 1995 Base Case estimate was derived by subtracting the value of projected efficiency improvements ($123 billion in 1996 constant dollars) from an original total estimate of $360 billion (in 1996 constant dollars) provided by field offices. The 1996 Base Case did not impose such a productivity estimate reduction on cost projections provided by field offices. Instead, productivity is assumed to be included in estimates provided by field offices. The 1996 Base Case is essentially a summary of estimates provided by field offices.

The 1996 estimate is therefore substantially lower than original 1995 estimates. The change reflects:

• increased productivity
• slightly reduced scope
• modification in compliance agreements with regulators
• change in technical remedy approaches
• use of commercial facilities and privatization of activities

The proportional distribution of estimated costs is roughly the same as the 1995 estimate across sites and across functional elements of the program.

Alternative Scenarios at Selected Sites

Nine alternative approaches to land use, program schedule and scope were evaluated at the five highest cost sites, representing 70 percent of the estimated costs. Resulting cost estimates ranged from $90 to $284 billion (Base Case estimate for these five sites is $160 billion).

• If overall cleanup was slower...
  

...life-cycle costs would be higher

• If only existing risks posed to offsite populations and workers were addressed...
  

...costs would be roughly half the Base Case estimate but less land and fewer facilities would be available for alternative future use and long-term surveillance and monitoring costs would be higher

• If maximum feasible cleanup was sought...
  

...the cost would be approximately double the Base Case cost projection

• If maximum feasible cleanup was also constrained by practical factors such as future site mission, habitat protection, and zoning...
  

...the cost would be only slightly higher (5%) than the Base Case cost estimate.

For further information, please contact the Center for Environmental Management Information.